伊万 🐉

Ivan Kokin

Independent researcher · Shanghai · EN · 中文 · RU

Position

Independent researcher based in Shanghai. Coverage: China's outbound supply chains, critical minerals, trade architecture with emerging markets — with Latin America as current primary focus, China ↔ emerging markets broadly in scope.

Background

Bachelor's degree from 江苏师范大学 (Jiangsu Normal University, July 2025). Prior to full-time research: production manager inside Chinese factories — QC, timelines, offtake negotiations, physical supply chain. Trilingual EN · 中文 · RU with direct field access to Chinese counterparties, customs data, regional trade press typically 2–4 weeks ahead of English coverage.

Methodology — v3.0 Trader Grade

Each publication follows a Bloomberg-grade research protocol: L1–L5 source hierarchy with forensic audit (7 axes per source: funding, clients, track record, systematic biases, methodology gaps, political ties, career incentives); outside-view base rates before specific-case analysis; FEV decomposition (Fundamentals / Expectations / Valuation); reflexivity check (Soros); pre-mortem before publication.

Every research item generates 10–20 probabilistic claims in the public forecast log, each dated, with an explicit falsification condition and horizon. Quarterly — Brier Score computation, calibration panel. The methodology becomes a measurable asset rather than narrative.

What this site is

Research platform, not a consulting shop. Publications are free. Target cadence: one full v3.0 article per 10–14 days, plus short update notes between. Distribution via RSS, Telegram, and email list.

What it is not

Not an investment advisor. Research is directional analysis with stated probabilities — not portfolio construction or position sizing. All trade ideas explicitly declared as such; readers size to their own portfolios.

Contact

Competitive research — not for publication but for edge. Tracked, measured, compounding.