Forecast Log
Every research piece generates 10–20 probabilistic claims with explicit falsification conditions. Quarterly — Brier Score computation, calibration panel. Without this, methodology is narrative, not edge.
Made 2026-04-21 · Research china-latam v1 · Brier calibration Q3 2026
| # | Prob | Claim | Horizon | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 70% | China share in LatAm exports to Asia remains >35% Falsification · RU translationFalsification — Customs data <30% for 2 consecutive quarters RU: Доля Китая в экспорте ЛатАм в Азию остаётся >35% | 2028-12 | Pending |
| 02 | 70% | Chancay reaches >50% target throughput Falsification · RU translationFalsification — COSCO ops reports <40% RU: Chancay достигает >50% target throughput | 2027-12 | Pending |
| 03 | 65% | USMCA review 2026 does NOT mandate divestiture of Chinese plants Falsification · RU translationFalsification — Binding rule in final text RU: USMCA review 2026 не предписывает mandatory divestiture Chinese plants | 2026-12 | Pending |
| 04 | 60% | Venezuelan crude flows to China >300k bpd Falsification · RU translationFalsification — Kpler 3-month MA <200k bpd RU: Venezuelan crude flows в Китай >300k bpd | 2027-12 | Pending |
| 05 | 55% | Argentina-China swap renewed at ≥RMB 130B Falsification · RU translationFalsification — Formal cancellation or size <100B RU: Argentina-China swap пролонгирован к ≥RMB 130B | 2027-06 | Pending |
| 06 | 70% | Ganfeng Cauchari reaches 40k tpa LCE Falsification · RU translationFalsification — Quarterly output <30k tpa RU: Ganfeng Cauchari достигает 40k tpa LCE | 2027-12 | Pending |
| 07 | 65% | Tianqi stake in SQM remains >20% Falsification · RU translationFalsification — Formal divestiture RU: Tianqi stake в SQM остаётся >20% | 2028-12 | Pending |
| 08 | 75% | CMOC Las Bambas production >350k tonnes Cu/year Falsification · RU translationFalsification — Annual output <300k tonnes RU: CMOC Las Bambas производство >350k tonnes Cu/год | 2027-12 | Pending |
| 09 | 55% | BYD Mexico plant starts commercial production Falsification · RU translationFalsification — No commercial production by 2027-12 RU: BYD Mexico plant commercial production start | 2027-06 | Pending |
| 10 | 50% | Panama Canal Chinese terminals retain Chinese majority operation Falsification · RU translationFalsification — Formal expropriation completed RU: Panama Canal Chinese terminals retain Chinese majority operation | 2028-12 | Pending |
| 11 | 60% | Chinese EV market share in Mexico domestic >25% Falsification · RU translationFalsification — <18% RU: Chinese EV market share в Mexico domestic >25% | 2028-12 | Pending |
| 12 | 65% | Brazil-China RMB settlement share >40% new bilateral Falsification · RU translationFalsification — <25% RU: Brazil-China RMB settlement share >40% new bilateral | 2027-12 | Pending |
| 13 | 55% | Chile National Lithium Strategy does not expel Tianqi Falsification · RU translationFalsification — Forced stake reduction below 15% RU: Chile National Lithium Strategy не выталкивает Tianqi | 2027-12 | Pending |
| 14 | 60% | Colombia remains pro-engagement with China post-2026 election Falsification · RU translationFalsification — New anti-China policy shift RU: Colombia остаётся pro-engagement с Китаем после 2026 election | 2027-06 | Pending |
| 15 | 45% | Argentina Milei signs NEW major Chinese infrastructure deal Falsification · RU translationFalsification — No deal completion RU: Argentina Milei подписывает NEW major Chinese infra deal | 2027-12 | Pending |
| 16 | 70% | Chinese cumulative FDI LatAm 2025-2027 >$40B Falsification · RU translationFalsification — <$25B RU: Chinese cumulative FDI LatAm 2025-2027 >$40B | 2027-12 | Pending |
| 17 | 50% | At least 2 new LatAm countries sign BRI MoUs Falsification · RU translationFalsification — Not achieved RU: Минимум 2 новых LatAm страны подписывают BRI MoUs | 2028-12 | Pending |
| 18 | 40% | Chinese outbound FDI LatAm 2025-2027 > 2022-2024 Falsification · RU translationFalsification — Below RU: Chinese outbound FDI LatAm 2025-2027 > 2022-2024 | 2027-12 | Pending |
| 19 | 55% | Bolivia CBC lithium consortium stays intact Falsification · RU translationFalsification — Consortium dissolution RU: Bolivia CBC lithium consortium остаётся intact | 2027-12 | Pending |
| 20 | 35% | Partial Venezuela sanctions carve-out for critical minerals Falsification · RU translationFalsification — No carve-out RU: Partial Venezuela sanctions carve-out для critical minerals | 2027-12 | Pending |